President Donald Trump made some remarks in an interview with Politico that was published this week, in which he remarked about the rapidly changing economic situation in the country. “I think it’s going to be about the success of our country. It’ll be about pricing. Because, you know, they (the Biden administration) gave us high pricing, and we’re bringing it down. Energy’s way down. Gasoline is way down,” he said.
He also claimed he’s confident Americans will embrace his economic message—that his administration is cleaning up the wreckage left behind by Joe Biden.
Hammering inflation and pinning it squarely on Biden is a smart political move. It fires up the GOP base and helps motivate Trump voters who often need an extra push to turn out when Trump himself isn’t on the ballot. And advisers – formal and informal – have obviously been pushing the president to do this.
It appears that the economy and inflation might be shifting in the GOP’s favor. Politico reported—somewhat disappointedly—that the economy is performing better than expected, with an annualized growth rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter. They also noted that inflation cooled to an annual rate of 2.7 percent in November, marking the smallest year-over-year increase since July.
Notably, energy prices have seen significant reductions.
In the absence of a recession or depression, a “blue wave” for the Democrats seems almost impossible. The recent economic situation likely takes a “credible recession or stagflation scenario off the table,” which “weakens the economic grievances that typically power midterm punishment.” If the inflation rate in 2026 “continues to stay at around 3.0 percent, it would be unprecedented for the “in-party” Republicans to be punished by the electorate based on high inflation from four years ago.”
If the inflation rate in 2026 remains around 3.0 percent, it would be unprecedented for the ruling Republicans to be punished by the electorate for high inflation from four years prior.
Without a doubt, Democrats are already running well behind where they were at this point in 2018—an ominous sign for a party trying to convince voters it deserves more power after years of mismanagement.
And as we’ve reported, the Trump team has no intention of letting Democrats catch their breath. The president plans to campaign full throttle heading into the 2026 midterms—an aggressive, unprecedented approach for a sitting president, and one that signals Republicans are treating these elections as a referendum on Biden-era failures and Democratic corruption.
Beyond simply reactivating the Trump voters who showed up in 2024, that kind of aggressive campaign could also pull in registered voters who sat out the last election but leaned toward the president. According to Democrat data scientist David Shor, if those voters had actually turned out, they likely would have blown up Trump’s popular-vote margin to more than three times its final size—a stunning admission from someone on the left.
It probably doesn’t hurt that President Trump runs on pure kinetic energy. He’s famously exuberant—borderline hyper—reportedly sleeps about four hours a night, refuels on a steady stream of Diet Cokes, and routinely outlasts staffers half his age.
Still, there’s no getting around the reality that President Trump needs to lift his approval numbers. The current RCP average has him at 43.1 percent approval with 53.8 percent disapproval. That represents a modest rebound from the low point of his second term, when he dipped below the 43 percent threshold I generally view as the danger zone for sitting presidents.
The uptick is likely tied to improving economic news and the end of the government shutdown theatrics, both of which reminded voters who actually delivers results when Washington isn’t sabotaging itself. But if Republicans are going to gain seats in the House—or at least keep losses below the net three seats Democrats would need to seize control—Trump’s numbers need to climb higher.
History makes that clear. In 1998 and 2002, the only two modern midterms in which the president’s party actually gained House seats, presidential approval sat comfortably in the 60s. Granted, we are living in a different political climate of hyper-partisanship. And one party (hint: Democrats) are crazy with open borders, 170 genders, boys and girls’ locker rooms, and healthcare for illegal aliens. But it will never hurt Trump to raise his approval rating.
So, how can Republicans help themselves retain control of the House:
Karl Rove suggests leaning into the GOP’s record on health care and on combating illegal immigration, including a high-profile presidential visit to the southern border to highlight the administration’s stepped-up enforcement efforts. That advice is fine as far as it goes.
But history shows that negative campaigning almost always beats positive messaging. If Republicans want to maximize their edge, they need a clear villain to run against. Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, or even Zohran Mamdani would all fit the bill as symbols of the left’s dysfunction and radicalism.
Crime remains a potent wedge issue, and Republicans are already starting to pounce. Even with overall crime rates edging down, the contrast is still stark: GOP efforts to back law enforcement and deport illegal aliens—especially in places like Washington, D.C.—versus the Democrats’ continued embrace of Soros-funded, soft-on-crime policies that put criminals ahead of law-abiding citizens.
Republicans could also flip the script on Democrats’ constant “affordability” complaints by going after soaring property taxes. While property taxes are largely a state issue, voters feel the pain every year. It’s worth remembering that one of Ronald Reagan’s most effective populist appeals was tax cuts—not just for businesses, but for everyday Americans fed up with sky-high taxes. That playbook still works.
Of course, plenty of other forces will shape the midterms as well—redistricting fights, fundraising disparities, party conventions, even the $2,000 tax checks and how voters perceive them.
That said, Republicans can always count on one thing: Democrats will run the same play they always do—“Trump is the devil.” They’ll reflexively oppose him and the GOP on virtually every issue, no matter how extreme, contrarian, or wildly out of step with public opinion their positions become. That means continued resistance to deporting illegal gang members and terror sympathizers, opposition to enforcing tough criminal laws against violent offenders, outrage over using the National Guard or military resources to restore order in dangerous cities, and hysterics over targeting foreign drug traffickers who are poisoning American communities.
This is not a strength for Democrats—it’s a massive vulnerability. Their fixation on treating Trump as some existential evil has led them to embrace positions most voters find insane. And Republicans would be foolish not to exploit it relentlessly.
In deep-blue states and safe Democratic territory—perhaps even places like Maine—the “Trump is the devil” routine may still be enough to carry the day. But it won’t work in competitive states and swing districts. And those battlegrounds, not the partisan strongholds, are where the 2026 midterm elections will ultimately be decided.
