The usual Sunday talk shows produced a few noteworthy nuggets from two top Trump administration officials sizing up the economic landscape in the months ahead. First up was ABC’s This Week, where host Jonathan Karl interviewed National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett — and let’s just say Hassett didn’t mince words when comparing Trump’s economic strategy to the Biden-era mess the administration inherited.
Here’s what Hassett said:
Well, first of all, if you look at the history of inflation, right, what happened was right away, Democrat spending in Joe Biden’s term, and we got inflation up almost to ten percent. It averaged five percent over the four years. And that has created a situation where, for example, mortgage rates went up, and so the typical payment for a monthly mortgage payment almost doubled. The, a bag of groceries that cost almost $400 when President Trump left office, is $500 or $550 when President Trump came back this time. And so there’s this really big hole that’s been dug.
And then the question you could also ask of an economist is, how do I summarize all this, different prices, everything? And one of the ways you could do it is just look at purchasing power, the real wage. Purchasing power – I’ll just finish this, then I’ll get back to you – Purchasing power dropped by about $3,000 under Joe Biden, because the wages didn’t keep up with the prices. Under President Trump it’s already gone up by about $1,200. We understand that people still feel the pain of the high prices. But we’re closing the gap fast.
As I’ve said before, the economy is like an aicraft carrier — it doesn’t pivot instantly, no matter who’s at the helm. Next, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed that reality while outlining the administration’s expectations for steady improvement as Trump’s policies continue taking effect:
He told Fox News host Maria Bartiromo:
The real thing that is going to happen, that is going to give Americans real purchasing power increases, it’s going to be through growth. We passed the One Big Beautiful Bill. I am also the IRS Commissioner, and I can see that working Americans, thanks to the president living up to his campaign promises, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility of auto loans if you buy an American car, they’re going to be substantial refunds in the first quarter of ’26. Working Americans will change their withholding, and they will get a bump up in their real incomes.
So, I would expect in the first two quarters, we are going to see the inflation curve down, and the real income curve substantially accelerate, and when those two lines cross, Americans are going to feel it. But Maria, I will tell you what we’re not going to do. What we’re not going to do is tell the American people that they don’t know how they’re feeling, which is what the Biden administration did. They said it was a (inaudible), you don’t know how good you have it, and we’re working every day to get these prices down.
Take note of Bessent’s predictions – the first and second quarters of next year. That’s going to be key.
Note the timing in Secretary Bessent’s predictions: The first and second quarters of 2026. This will be key.
Everything right now comes down to 2026. The economy will decide the midterms, and the midterms will determine whether the Trump administration has the runway it needs for 2027 and 2028 — all the way through the next presidential election. If voters don’t feel real improvement by Election Day 2026, Republicans will be fighting uphill to keep control of the House and Senate. Losing either chamber would cripple Trump’s ability to govern in the back half of his term and almost certainly unleash another wave of partisan, baseless impeachment theatrics from Democrats.
As the old line goes, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and it’s never been more true. The Trump administration is doing the right thing by getting out ahead with consistent messaging — but strong messaging only carries you so far. Voters need to see concrete progress, not just hear about it.
If the GOP wants to hold Congress and keep Trump’s agenda on track, the results must speak as loudly as the rhetoric.
