The betting platform Polymarket initiated its sweepstakes for the 2028 presidential election on Friday, providing users with the opportunity to buy and sell shares based on their predictions of who will secure the White House.
Vice President JD Vance is currently the overall frontrunner, holding a 27 percent share, as reported by the site. California Governor Gavin Newsom follows with 17 percent, while New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stands at 10 percent. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and others complete the top rankings.
Kamala Harris, the Democrats’ nominee for 2024 and former vice president, is positioned much lower on the list with only 4 percent, just one point ahead of President Donald Trump, who is constitutionally prohibited from seeking another term after serving two.
Among Democratic candidates, Newsom leads with a 22 percent probability, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 18 percent, Buttigieg at 12 percent, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 7 percent, and Harris at 6 percent.
On the Republican front, Vance is in a dominant position. He boasts a significant 56 percent lead over Marco Rubio, who is far behind at merely 6 percent.
Vance’s status as the clear frontrunner for the GOP emerged after he assumed the role of RNC campaign finance chair in March, making him the first sitting vice president to occupy this position. This has established him as one of the party’s leading fundraisers as the 2026 midterms approach, according to The Daily Caller.
He has also become a frequent figure in prominent interviews, advocating for key Trump administration nominees such as Director of Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. during their Senate confirmations.
Representative Byron Donalds referred to Vance as “the leader in the clubhouse” earlier this year, asserting that he would be a formidable opponent in 2028.
Meanwhile, Newsom is actively pursuing his own strategies. He has participated in numerous high-profile interviews with conservative hosts and maintains a strong online presence, which many interpret as indications of a potential future candidacy.
Additionally, he has garnered support from South Carolina Representative Jim Clyburn, a highly influential figure within the Democratic Party.
Clyburn’s endorsement played a crucial role in President Biden’s victory during the 2020 primary and significantly revitalized his campaign at a critical juncture.
Polymarket, which identifies itself as the largest prediction market globally, allows users to wager on political events and their outcomes. The platform has attracted attention for its surprising accuracy in previous election cycles.
In the meantime, Vance has actively utilized his vice presidential responsibilities since assuming office. This week, he cast two tie-breaking votes in the Senate on Tuesday to promote a $9.4 billion rescissions plan aimed at cutting government funding for PBS and NPR.
The Senate was deadlocked at 50-50 on two procedural votes to initiate discussions regarding the multibillion-dollar expenditure clawback plan until Vance’s votes propelled the proposal requested by the White House.
Three Republicans, all regarded as anti-Trump — Senators Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), and Susan Collins (R-Maine) — aligned with all Democrats in opposing the plan.
The package, which was approved by the House of Representatives last month, seeks to eliminate approximately $8.3 billion that was previously designated for the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and $1.1 billion allocated to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), which partially finances National Public Radio (NPR) and the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS).
A projected reduction of $400 million to the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) program is expected to be removed through an amendment prior to the vote on the measure.
“There was significant interest from our members in addressing PEPFAR,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) informed reporters following a meeting with Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought. “That’s reflected in the substitute.”
“We are optimistic that if we can successfully navigate this through the Senate, the House will agree to that one minor modification, which would ultimately transform the package into approximately a $9 billion rescissions package,” Thune further stated.
