President Donald Trump made some remarks in an interview with Politico that was published this week, in which he remarked about the rapidly changing economic situation in the country. \u201cI think it\u2019s going to be about the success of our country. It\u2019ll be about pricing. Because, you know, they (the Biden administration) gave us high pricing, and we\u2019re bringing it down. Energy\u2019s way down. Gasoline is way down,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
He also claimed he\u2019s confident Americans will embrace his economic message\u2014that his administration is cleaning up the wreckage left behind by Joe Biden.<\/p>\n
Hammering inflation and pinning it squarely on Biden is a smart political move. It fires up the GOP base and helps motivate Trump voters who often need an extra push to turn out when Trump himself isn\u2019t on the ballot. And advisers \u2013 formal and informal \u2013 have obviously been pushing the president to do this.<\/p>\n
It appears that the economy and inflation might be shifting in the GOP\u2019s favor. Politico reported\u2014somewhat disappointedly\u2014that the economy is performing better than expected, with an annualized growth rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter. They also noted that inflation cooled to an annual rate of 2.7 percent in November, marking the smallest year-over-year increase since July.<\/p>\n
Notably, energy prices have seen significant reductions.<\/p>\n
In the absence of a recession or depression, a \u201cblue wave\u201d for the Democrats seems almost impossible. The recent economic situation likely takes a \u201ccredible recession or stagflation scenario off the table,\u201d which \u201cweakens the economic grievances that typically power midterm punishment.\u201d If the inflation rate in 2026 \u201ccontinues to stay at around 3.0 percent, it would be unprecedented for the \u201cin-party\u201d Republicans to be punished by the electorate based on high inflation from four years ago.\u201d<\/p>\n
If the inflation rate in 2026 remains around 3.0 percent, it would be unprecedented for the ruling Republicans to be punished by the electorate for high inflation from four years prior.<\/p>\n
Without a doubt, Democrats are already running well behind where they were at this point in 2018\u2014an ominous sign for a party trying to convince voters it deserves more power after years of mismanagement.<\/p>\n
And as we\u2019ve reported, the Trump team has no intention of letting Democrats catch their breath. The president plans to campaign full throttle heading into the 2026 midterms\u2014an aggressive, unprecedented approach for a sitting president, and one that signals Republicans are treating these elections as a referendum on Biden-era failures and Democratic corruption.<\/p>\n
Beyond simply reactivating the Trump voters who showed up in 2024, that kind of aggressive campaign could also pull in registered voters who sat out the last election but leaned toward the president. According to Democrat data scientist David Shor, if those voters had actually turned out, they likely would have blown up Trump\u2019s popular-vote margin to more than three times its final size\u2014a stunning admission from someone on the left.<\/p>\n
It probably doesn\u2019t hurt that President Trump runs on pure kinetic energy. He\u2019s famously exuberant\u2014borderline hyper\u2014reportedly sleeps about four hours a night, refuels on a steady stream of Diet Cokes, and routinely outlasts staffers half his age.<\/p>\n
Still, there\u2019s no getting around the reality that President Trump needs to lift his approval numbers. The current RCP average has him at 43.1 percent approval with 53.8 percent disapproval. That represents a modest rebound from the low point of his second term, when he dipped below the 43 percent threshold I generally view as the danger zone for sitting presidents.<\/p>\n
The uptick is likely tied to improving economic news and the end of the government shutdown theatrics, both of which reminded voters who actually delivers results when Washington isn\u2019t sabotaging itself. But if Republicans are going to gain seats in the House\u2014or at least keep losses below the net three seats Democrats would need to seize control\u2014Trump\u2019s numbers need to climb higher.<\/p>\n
History makes that clear. In 1998 and 2002, the only two modern midterms in which the president\u2019s party actually gained House seats, presidential approval sat comfortably in the 60s. Granted, we are living in a different political climate of hyper-partisanship. And one party (hint: Democrats) are crazy with open borders, 170 genders, boys and girls\u2019 locker rooms, and healthcare for illegal aliens. But it will never hurt Trump to raise his approval rating.<\/p>\n
So, how can Republicans help themselves retain control of the House:<\/p>\n
Karl Rove suggests leaning into the GOP\u2019s record on health care and on combating illegal immigration, including a high-profile presidential visit to the southern border to highlight the administration\u2019s stepped-up enforcement efforts. That advice is fine as far as it goes.
\nBut history shows that negative campaigning almost always beats positive messaging. If Republicans want to maximize their edge, they need a clear villain to run against. Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, or even Zohran Mamdani would all fit the bill as symbols of the left\u2019s dysfunction and radicalism.
\nCrime remains a potent wedge issue, and Republicans are already starting to pounce. Even with overall crime rates edging down, the contrast is still stark: GOP efforts to back law enforcement and deport illegal aliens\u2014especially in places like Washington, D.C.\u2014versus the Democrats\u2019 continued embrace of Soros-funded, soft-on-crime policies that put criminals ahead of law-abiding citizens.
\nRepublicans could also flip the script on Democrats\u2019 constant \u201caffordability\u201d complaints by going after soaring property taxes. While property taxes are largely a state issue, voters feel the pain every year. It\u2019s worth remembering that one of Ronald Reagan\u2019s most effective populist appeals was tax cuts\u2014not just for businesses, but for everyday Americans fed up with sky-high taxes. That playbook still works.<\/p>\n
Of course, plenty of other forces will shape the midterms as well\u2014redistricting fights, fundraising disparities, party conventions, even the $2,000 tax checks and how voters perceive them.<\/p>\n
That said, Republicans can always count on one thing: Democrats will run the same play they always do\u2014\u201cTrump is the devil.\u201d They\u2019ll reflexively oppose him and the GOP on virtually every issue, no matter how extreme, contrarian, or wildly out of step with public opinion their positions become. That means continued resistance to deporting illegal gang members and terror sympathizers, opposition to enforcing tough criminal laws against violent offenders, outrage over using the National Guard or military resources to restore order in dangerous cities, and hysterics over targeting foreign drug traffickers who are poisoning American communities.<\/p>\n
This is not a strength for Democrats\u2014it\u2019s a massive vulnerability. Their fixation on treating Trump as some existential evil has led them to embrace positions most voters find insane. And Republicans would be foolish not to exploit it relentlessly.<\/p>\n
In deep-blue states and safe Democratic territory\u2014perhaps even places like Maine\u2014the \u201cTrump is the devil\u201d routine may still be enough to carry the day. But it won\u2019t work in competitive states and swing districts. And those battlegrounds, not the partisan strongholds, are where the 2026 midterm elections will ultimately be decided.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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